Looking at this postseason, one thing stands out. The team that wins the turnover battle wins. Forget yardage. The Vikings had almost twice the yards as the Saints, but they lost the turnover battle 5-1.

Let’s look at all the playoff games from this past January. Turnover edge is shown in green:

NYJ +2.5 @ CIN NYJ 2-0 NYJ 24-14

PHI @ DAL -3.5 DAL 4-1 DAL 34-14

BAL @ NE -3.5 BAL 4-2 BAL 33-14

GB @ ARI +2.5 ARI 3-1 ARI 51-45

ARI @ NO -7 NO 2-0 NO 45-14

BAL @ IND -6.5 IND 4-1 IND 20-

DAL @ MIN -2.5 MIN 3-0 MIN 34-3

NYJ +7.5 @ SD NYJ 2-1 NYJ 17-14

NYJ @ IND -8 1-1 <= ! IND 30-17

MIN @ NO -4 NO 5-1 MIN 28-31


Teams that lost the turnover battle in these playoffs are 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS.There are only three teams that didn’t lose a turnover battle: the Jets, the Colts, and the Saints. Two of them meet in the Superbowl, the other was responsible for the only two SU dog wins these playoffs...

For the Saints, up 7-1 in the turnover battle, these numbers don’t even tell the real story. Favre spent half the evening on his back, was hit sixteen times, but no sacks were recorded. So this is coming down to the Saints DL and the Colts OL.

Manning has recently developed a habit of simply falling to the ground before getting hit. He prefers giving up some yardage over ‘taking it like a man’. This may be smart. If it happens once or twice in a game. But if it happens ten times it’s going to look very silly.

What’s a turnover worth during these playoffs? In ten games the winning teams had a 30-8 turnover edge and won the game by an average of 15.1 pts. There was one turnover tie. So in the remaining nine games with a team winning the turnover battle that edge was 29-7 for an average of 15.3 pts. That’s a 22 turnovers/9 games, or 2.44 turnover edge for a 15.3 pt edge. This places the value of a turnover at 6.26 pts! Better than a TD before the PA...

No team that has lost the turnover battle these playoffs has won the game. Teams play for this edge much more so than in the past. The Saints come in with a 7-1 turnover edge, the Colts with a 5-2 edge. A study of how turnovers are 'created' may definitely be worth the trouble. Bring on the game tapes.

Another view from the desert. Like last week, let's start with a simple question. Do you really want to bet on the celebrated Drew Brees, with his unimpressive 1-2 lifetime playoff record (0-3 ATS), or would you rather trust Kurt Warner, veritable Zen master of playoff football?

For the sixth straight playoff game, going back to last season, the Cardinals enter the field as underdogs. In the previous five games they went 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS, but this simple fact continues to escape a rather large section of the betting public. The Cardinals are confusing to many, because they have three faces. (see last week's blog). And because they lack consistency, from one regular season game to the next, as well as within the same game, they fail to leave a lasting impression. They build big leads, relax, let opponents back in, and just squeeze out a victory. But are they really that vulnerable, or is there something else going on? Let's look closer.

Turnovers were a problem for Arizona during the regular season. The price they paid for trying to become more balanced; by running more, they fumbled more. But they may be far more careful with the ball in the playoffs. Consider:

+2.5 HD v GB, 51-45 W and 3-1 turnover battle; Cards had 31-10 lead, but game tied at 45 each after regulation.

+6.5 Superbowl dogs v PIT, 23-27 L (ATS W) and 1-2 in turnover battle (!); Cards behind 7-20, but take 23-20 lead.

+3.5 HD v PHI, 32-25 W and 3-1 in turnover battle; Cards ahead 24-6, but fall behind 24-25 (!)

+10 RD at CAR, 33-13 W and 6-1 in turnover battle; Cards up 33-7 and never in doubt.

+2 HD v ATL, 30-24 W and 3-1 in turnover battle; Cards up 14-3, and behind 14-17.

That's a combined 16-6 turnover edge in playoff games. And not against the Detroits and Clevelands of the world, but against the very strongest teams in the league, that were favored over Arizona! They lost the turnover battle once, in the Superbowl, when Harrison took back an INT from his own end zone for a TD on the final play of the first half. A 14-pt swing that decided the Superbowl. And yet the lack of consistency, the tendency to give up big leads, leaves a widespread impression that the Cards remain very beatable. It's almost as if they take a NBA attitude into the game, and don't care about protecting big leads, because they know they can pretty much score at will.

Which brings us back to Brees and the Saints, and their very shallow playoff experience. Do you think they will win the turnover battle against Arizona? The question is how do the Cards force those turnovers? It's not some law of averages that comes to their aid, such as number of interceptions per number of pass attemtps. It's something much more active than that. Blitz packages and confusing defensive schemes that completely take opponents by surprise; especially early in the game. That's how they force those turnovers and build big leads, and only then do they relax... With the exception of the Superbowl, the above playoff games have one thing in common: Arizona struck fast, and hard!

Arizona has slight edges over the Saints in passing defense and rushing defense; but if there's one 'hidden' stat that stands out it is punting inside the opponents 20 yard line; the battle for field position. Arizona punted the ball 42 times inside the opponent's 20. The Saints only did so 18 times for the season. That's big. If only because teams are more conservative when pinned back against their own goal line. So if the Saints can't get a first down, the Cards end up with excellent field position. Punting as a weapon.

Home field advantage? Go back to the schizophrenic mentality of Arizona. They love it when the whole world is against them. Sure, the Saints are 6-2 at home. Guess what the Cards are on the road? 6-2. Those Saints losses don't count, because they came at the end of the season? Fair enough. Let's throw them out. The Cards lost one road game on a last second play by Vince Young, with Leinart starting for Warner. Let's throw that one out. That leaves the division game at the Niners. Here the Cardinals were indeed outplayed by a very gritty, in-your-face 49 teams that decidedly won the turnover battle. But that is not the kind of game that the Saints play.

Will this be another shootout? There is no question that Brees can pick the Cardinals defense apart, or that Warner can return the favor. When teams cross the field very fast, it doesn't give the defense a lot of time to rest, which makes it it even harder to stop the next offensive drive. Things slow down with more emphasis on running, which eat up clock and also give the defense more time to rest. One thing that got lost in last week's shootout is that the Cards rushed for 156 yards. That's very high for them, and opened up the passing game even more. That was the league's number 2 defense they just ripped apart. As long as Arizona doesn't lose the turnover battle they'll continue to prove very hard to beat. The defense has its lapses, but the Saints defense isn't any better. The Cards defense has, in fact, been surprisingly reliable in the playoffs until the team had build up a big lead. After that, a mental switch has indeed occured; but not before it.

The sharp fluctuations in their playoff games lend themselves well for live betting. Arizona gets an emotional edge from being underdogs, yet suffers a letdown with a big lead. If they fall behind, as in the Superbowl, they can step it up a few notches as well. Take it to the bank. The Saints, once in the hunt for an unbeaten season, haven't won a game in a month (and are 2-8 ATS in L10)! They're a good team, but may have peaked too early. And yet they are favored by 7 points! Just what the Cards love... Get this: for the present season Arizona is 7-0 ATS as underdog. When favored, they're only 3-7 ATS. Hot dog! And don't forget the Zona moneyline. Experience is on their side.

Quick update, before starting to look at Saturday's game in New Orleans.  Cards just off the highest scoring game in playoff history (!), beating the Packers 51-45 in OT.  But... they gave up a shocking 35 second half points. That is a direct expression of the different modes of this team, described below.  Give them a big lead and they will, absolutely, relax.  It's who they are.  Just look back at last season's wins over Dallas (regular season),  and playoff wins over the Falcons and Eagles.  They switch from high-focus to total lack of focus.  They can't play with big leads. Their comfort zone, their place of inspiration, is as underdogs.  I don't know if a NFL team has ever won a playoff game after giving up 35 second half points, but they better get their act together fast.

Playoff time in the desert. You know. The usual thing.

Question #1: who has the playoff experience? You really want to bet on Aaron Rodgers in his very first playoff game, and ignore Kurt Warner's subscription to the Superbowl?

The Packers are one and done, on one condition. That the Cards find the right intensity. As a local, I have to admit that last year's Cardinals were easier to predict (the Cards, you will recall, or may have tried to forget, were 4-0 ATS in the playoffs). Last season they were either too loose (and would lose), or right on. They were able to step it up a few notches against strong opponents. One of two possible Cards teams would show up, and in games that mattered it was invariably the strong team. But now, there are not two, but three variations of the Cardinals. This season they've added a wrinkle. They've been too tight on a few occasions. A result of the expectations they've placed on themselves. And the 'too tight' type of games were characterized by the most unfortunate of stats: turnovers.

The negative turnover ratio in Phoenix this season is mostly the result of trying to become more balanced. A mistake. They didn't need more rushing yards. Last season their minimum rushing yards for maximum winning ratio was 50 yards... Just 50! When they reached that they were 12-1 ATS and 11-2 SU. When they missed it they were 1-6 ATS and SU. The only other two teams last season with that low a rushing target? Steelers and Titans! Talk about a team that's being misperceived... But the Cards themselves drank that particular batch of koolaid, and now have Beanie Wells fumbling the ball with regularity, which is costing them the turnover battle. Just about right now they could use old Edge to run the ball for them. Beanie will, and should, be attacked aggressively. He's the weak spot, of the type that will look great one day and lose them the game the next time. The type of inconsistency that will kill you in the playoffs. So even though the Cards look stronger on paper than last year, by showing a greater balance, they are in reality more vulnerable. They fixed something that didn't need fixing. The problem with Beanie Wells is that his talent is matched only by his inexperience. It is easy to focus on one, and let him carry the load, and forget the other. The reality is that this kid is not ready for the playoffs, and that his lack of experience unbalances an otherwise very balanced team.

The Cards O-line has been a little suspect, late in the season, but on the other side of the ball Rodgers will be blitzed in a way he has not seen all season. Rodgers needs more time to release than Warner, plus Warner is more accurate. And I won't get into the receivers on either side; that's a 'no contest' by any standard.

So which Cards team will show up? They won't be too loose. That is certain. But will they be too tight, as in the game they really wanted at the Niners? A team that destroys itself with turnovers. Or will it be the team that shrugged off Favre and the Vikings as insignificant? And, for that matter, do you really think there's much difference between Favre new team and his old one? Same school. Favre fit right in, because it was the same type of team. *cha-ching*

The last time the Cards tasted human blood in the water was in the Superbowl, and they have been waiting all year to get back to the hunt. The hunt starts now. The betting public is already showing the Cards the usual disrespect, by dropping the line from -2.5 to -1 (-1 -111 at Pinny). In my opinion the Cards should be favored by about a TD. The East Coast doesn't see many Cards games, but plenty of Packer action. Go cheeseheads. Bet against Arizona. Forget that they already beat the SB hangover; unlike the Steelers. (And the Madden Curse, unlike err...).

I would recommend the local Prickly Pear Margerita to wash away the cheese fondu.

Looking at BTP results.

For those who played 12 weeks or more, and included at least 48 picks, last season 129 players played 12 weeks or more. Of these:
11 hit 60% or better.
21 hit 58% or better.
28 hit 57% or better.
38 hit 55% or better.

This season, with 278 players (!) playing 12 weeks or more, only:
12 hit 60% or better
22 or 23 hit 58% or better (1 game left)
36 or 35 hit 57% or better (1 game left)


Consistency. From last year's group how did the players... More...

I had to burn the shirt. I liked it, a lot, but that was way across the line. Kurt Warner out just before halftime, after carving through the Rams defense at will on a comfortable pace for 42+ pts by the Cards alone. Leinart in. No more scores for Arizona the rest of the way. A strong Over flushed down the toilet. This followed the Steelers in a 3 tm teaser, up 17-7 and 24-17 late in the game. Roethlisberger out. The Superbowl champs lose in an OT shocker to the terrible Chiefs; even after winning the coin toss. And for the cherry on top there were the Bengals in a 3 tm Wong teaser. Up 17-10 with under a minute to go. The same great defense that held the Steelers to four FG's the week before, with OAK down to 4th and 9 around midfield. OAK scored 10 pts in that final minute; first time they scored twice in the last minute since 1968. Don't ask how. Just know that I couldn't possibly wear that shirt ever again. Nothing to do with superstition. I just don't want the memory. It would weigh me down. Burning the shirt is like cremating the memory, so I can move on. Hey, Jerry Rice wore a brandnew uniform in every game. Because every game is brand new. It makes a lot of sense. In fact, from that perspective, there is something highly unusual about ever wearing the same clothing twice. (Of course, it helps if you have a Nike contract).

I forgot, does the President pick or pardon The First Turkey? This little girl asked how Thanksgiving would look through millions of pairs of turkey eyes. She's right. But if you start thinking like that, there's nothing left to give thanks for. Short term memory. Voluntary Alzheimers. It is what unites gamblers and quarterbacks. If it distracts, throw it out with the trash. Cold Turkey. Which brings us to the all important question: which QB this Thursday needs to have the best memory loss?

We have six QB's this Thursday, and two come in off miracle wins. For Detroit we have Stafford, fresh off a last second Hail Mary converted to one final play from the 1 yard line with no time left. Winner, winner, chicken dinner. And from the West Coast we have Gradkowski, who not only replaced Jamarcus R., but connected on a 4th and 9 in the final minute. Did I mention this already? These guys, and their terrible respective teams, are coming off major highs. They were launched into the stratosphere; face to face with the Allmighty. Add the short week, and the chances that they are back down to earth in time for Thanksgiving kickoff are next to nil. Their bodies may be there, but their minds will be MIA. So let's start off with a boom: parlay whoever they play and give thanks later. The moneylines, of course. You don't want your mind on the spread with family and friends all over the place. (Don't worry about Stafford's separated shoulder on his non-throwing arm. Didn't I just tell you that he will be questionable no matter what?)

Thankfully, there's one game worth watching on Thursday. The G-men at the Broncos, with Orton in serious need of memory loss after the 32-3 drubbing by the Chargers. But Orton looked pretty sharp when he came on for Sims, and the Broncos were very unlucky in this game, with two red hot zone turnovers when the game was still competitive. All of the East Coast must be on the Giants, because they were watching another game and only looked at the final score. That +6.5 already looks sweet, and it may be a TD by kickoff.

After four straight losses, have the Broncos reached the over-my-dead-body point? Just this past Sunday the G-men were in the exact same boat. A four game losing streak on the heels of going undefeated. And the NYG come in as 6.5 RF's? Why? Because they won their last game at home in OT? So what would the line have been if they had lost the coin toss? Isn't it amazing what people don't remember...?

(in response to SBR's request for 500 word contributions).

First of all, if you need 500 words to explain a pick, chances are it's probably not a very good pick; odds are you're talking yourself into something you're not clear about. More is not better. Less is.

To illustrate, my NFL picks have no words at all. They have a few abbreviations, and a whole bunch of numbers. These numbers mean something, because they represent distilled information. The essence of a broader concept was concentrated into a number. That's why it's useful. The added advantage of being brief and to the point is that you can have a lot of information about a game on just a few lines. My NFL sheets for each week look like horse racing forms. I don't think those forms would win any Pulitzer prizes, but I'm fine with that. It's still art. Just abstract.

Abstract is sexy. 'Too sexy for my car'? Why would I want that? Only a catwalking clunker driver could come up with that. My car is all abstract lines (thanks to Bayerische Motoren Werken). Taking it for a spin is the sexy part. You didn't know that's what BWM stands for, did you? You're into abbreviations. You're abstract. And you like your distilled.

Example. Colts 35-Pats 34. Or even more concise: 35-34. It's enough to crack a smile; even if you didn't see the game. Let's face it, if you're old enough, how would you best describe Raquel Welch? 36-24-36. Guys come up with that stuff. They love stats. Even if they don't know what 36-24-36 stands for, they know it's something very good and wholesome. Women couldn't care less about numbers. They feel. But some do feel like they should live up to our stats. (True, there was a day that I too thought that BMW meant Breasts Must Wiggle; but a friend quickly burst my bubble with his reply: But Most Won't.)

Come to think of it, women also talk a lot. Where a guy would use five words, a woman might use 500. Which brings up the question: is SBR trying to change us with these 500 word blogs? If you hung out at SBR for a few years, have you experienced any hormonal changes?

Let's talk about a game. What's on the board? Suns at Hornets... Sweet. Suns blew out Hornets by 20 pts just eight days ago, and it wasn't that close. Since then the Hornets have lost their coach (Byron Scott was fired right after the loss to the Suns) and their point guard (CP3 out for a couple of weeks with a sprained ankle). Meanwhile the Suns have been clicking early and firing on all cylinders. They also have shown the grittiness to pull out games in the 4th quarter. Last season they were 4-30 when behind after three quarters, this season they're 5-2 in that situation! Why? Because 'the team that doesn't play defense' somehow, miraculously, doesn't allow points late in close games. They're focused, together, and without the Big Diesel, or Aristotle, or Cactus clogging up the lane, the run 'n' gun magic is back and executed better than before. They got an unexpected gift in Channing Frye, who's been deadly from 3-point range; spreading out the floor for Amare inside. And they have something else they never had before. A bench with claws. In other words, forget revenge for New Orleans. SSOL is back. (you'll have to look that up). The Suns go to a league best 11-2 this Thursday night.

Look at that. I've covered philosophy, taught you German, practically solved the battle of the sexes, and given out a winner, and I'm still only about halfway to 500.

Oh well, I'll just call it a column. And that picture is worth a thousand words.

[QUOTE]NEW YORK - The National Football League injury report, as provided by the league

(OUT - Definitely will not play; DNP - Did not practice; LIMITED - Limited participation in practice; FULL - Full participation in practice):

Sunday

ARIZONA CARDINALS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -- CARDINALS: OUT: DE Kenny Iwebema ( ankle), S Matt Ware ( shoulder). QUESTIONABLE: WR Anquan Boldin (hamstring), WR Steve Breaston (knee), WR Early Doucet (ribs), LB Chike Okeafor (shoulder). PROBABLE: WR Sean Morey (ribs), QB Brian St. Pierre (back), G Reggie Wells (thumb). JAGUARS: OUT: TE Zach Miller (knee), CB Brian Witherspoon (hamstring). PROBABLE: DE Quentin Groves (thigh),...[/QUOTE] More...

My question is statistical, but I have to lead into it with a little slice of life.

I had this annoying song in my head. It's one of those slow French songs that make you want to hang yourself and yet wouldn't be out of place during sex. Not my kind of music. Come to think of it, maybe it popped into my head because of David Carradine's strange death. Yeah, that must be it.



Once I found the song on Youtube, I played the whole thing because of her looks. There I also came across the comment that... More...

Horse racing is as over-analyzed a field as you will find. The main reason I love the literature is that it is loaded with good ideas that can be translated to other sports. And then there is the strange idea that I might, somehow, be able to transfer my understanding of other sports to the sport of kings.

So how does a rookie go about attacking this field? The first priority for me was simplification. Too many people know too much about this field. If I was to find any edge I needed an immediate and powerful... More...